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It’s been a while since I’ve written on a Friday, big irons in the fire. However today marks the deadline for that fire.
For the past several months we have been vigorously working to turn Fjell Capital into a fully independent registered investment advisor.
If you would like to talk about that shoot me an email, a DM, or a text. Many of you reading this will have one of those options.
My favorite TWO ways to identify a great investment, they may somewhat surprise you. Note: this is by no means investment advice.
1. The price matters more than everyone thinks, just not in the way that everyone thinks.
I tell people NOT to pay attention to price, because it’s easy to get hung up on the number itself.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a near $2,000 stock, and I hear “it’s way too expensive.”
Price /= Expensive or Cheap
The price tells the story.
I remember in my high school English class doing a project where we needed to draw out a story out of a series of checks written in the late 1920s. This is, in a way, very similar.
Becoming a good interpreter of price, is the same thing as being able to interpret a good story.
When I am looking into an investment, I always look at the story (price) of that investment.
But it’s not only being a good story interpreter, it’s being a good story teller, and being able to craft where the story could go into the future.
2. I have to be able to tell a good story about the future.
This is where I need to find the why behind my conviction in a particular story path.
Hint: this is the fundamentals.
Why should anything be any more valuable tomorrow than today, what things have to change to make that a reality?
Sometimes it’s easy and the narrative is laid out in front of me plain as day.
Other times it’s incredibly challenging.
I’ll share one such challenging story path to tell.
Media streaming has been a challenging business in the last 24 months. Companies like Disney, Comcast, Netflix, and others are fighting to grow and become profitable, however it’s hit some road blocks with content quality and quantity and the individual subscription revenue.
The solution: ad tiers.
However that is easier said that done, Disney and Netflix are struggling to switch ad-free subs to ad subs.
The ad tier subscribers are far more profitable because the revenue from a particular content piece is infinitely scalable, versus just $10/month, one month that sub could generate $100 for Disney or Netflix.
The opportunity is that they are able to convert ad-free subs to ad subs and that helps create a healthy profit margin that investors will celebrate.
The problem is that is no easy feat. You have to both retain while creating a less desirable user experience.
There is a story that is hard to see the path forward, it may take years to unveil itself.
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Investing isn’t meant to be easy. If it was, everyone would be rich.
The reality is you have to work. You have to work to learn, grow, and become better.
And that is tiring.
First you become tired, then you become RE-tired, but rich.
And with that I want to offer you our brand new newsletter where we will help you become tired so you can some day become RE-tired.
It’s called Tired and Rich, you can find it 👈, or you can go to tiredandrich.com
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