Happy Fourth of July!

We are half way through the year. Six months in and six months to go. The stock market (S&P 500) is up over 15% and the recession forecast has it moved back to 2024.

I’m going to keep this one short, but I found this chart interesting because even though it seems as if the market could/should start to fall in the second half of the year, history has shown that the majority of the time that the market is up 14%+ in the first half of the year, we’ll either end the year modestly lower (like 0.4%-1% lower) or we will experience another nearly double digit return from here.

Now of course we can’t hang our investment decisions on history alone, because there are always tail risks in the market (unforeseen events). However I do believe that if history rhymes with itself and we don’t see any major changes to the downside in expectations, that a further rally from here may be attainable.

That is all and Happy Fourth of July!